Bayesian Study Design for Survival Endpoints: Enhancing decision making in early clinical development

Rachel Moate, Principal Statistician, Quanticate Ltd

Phase II, or ‘Proof of Concept’ studies can be large and expensive, at a stage in development where there remains considerable uncertainty about the chance of success. This talk will introduce Bayesian methods and show how they can be applied to help clinical development teams design smarter, pragmatic and more informative phase II trials.  Using a case study from oncology, some of the concepts of Bayesian methodology that are re- defining the approach in early phase development will be introduced. Graphics will be used to illustrate the properties of alternative designs and the benefits of adopting the Bayesian approach will be discussed.